China Is Rising - Outlook On Chinese Economy

It's been happening rapidly and it's been happeningits loans without restrictions which perturbs many
(with the odd hiccup) consistently. For 10 years theinternational aid organizations and the World Bank
PRC has been growing at a break neck pace atwhich try to place restrictions on their loans. These
something like 10 per cent per annum. Fishing villagesrestrictions usually involve issues with corruption or
like Shenzhen (the closest city in the PRC borderingthe environment.
Hong Kong) have become cities and cities likeInvestor enthusiasm for China and India (noted in the
Shanghai have become mega cities with the immenselatest (2005) FDI Confidence Index) is at an all-time
Pudong financial district rising from paddy fields in ahigh, with roughly 45 per cent of global investors
decade. Urban legend? It has been said that at onemore upbeat about China and India compared to last
point half the world's cranes were to be found inyear. China achieved its highest ever score in the
Shanghai.latest index and has held top spot since 2002.
This article considers how China is managing thisThe FDI gap is likely to widen as China continues to
growth through its own programme of Foreign Directimplement its WTO accession commitments that
Investment (FDI) and the implications of its successinvolve extensive liberalisation of the service sector
or failure in steering the behemoth economy it isuntil the year 2007.
creating. We will also look at the frameworks beingAt some point as or after this article goes to press,
used for the flow of FDI into China.China will surpass US$1 trillion in reserves. With the
In an effort to cool growth and prevent overheatingimmense wealth comes increasing responsibility as
in the economy, The People's Bank of China hadChina takes on a part in not only steering its own
required banks in the PRC to increase funds oneconomy but that of the world. Within the next 20
reserve to nine per cent by 15 November 2006. Thisyears, China could rival the US as one the world's
followed two similar orders to increase deposits ineconomic navigators.
June and July 2006. Estimates suggest that each 0.5The US$1 trillion reserves represent a fivefold
per cent rise in the funds banks keep on depositincrease since 2001 and present great challenges to
freezes 150 billion Renminbi.China whilst simultaneously reflecting the successes
China's scrabble for natural resources to fuel itsof its policies. On the downside China now has an
growth is important. Over the past decade China hasimbalanced economy, driven too much by exports -
worked assiduously at building relationships withwhich keep adding to those reserves - and not
resource rich countries, particularly those that areenough by domestic consumers.
nonaligned or have specific anti-US or socialist policiesChina is trying to manage the transition to a more
like Venezuela, in keeping with China's political hue.consumer-driven economy through policies aimed at
Evidence of this can be found at the recent summitstimulating domestic spending which include two,
of African nations - called the Forum on China-Africaweek-long national holidays.
Cooperation - which included 48 African nationsResearch presented by academics in a paper at the
devoted to developing increasingly stronger economicSixth Asian Economic Panel Meeting has shown that
relationships. As many as 2,500 deals were on theFDI to China is positively related to levels of FDI that
table at the summit for oil and other resources.the other main contenders for investment in
Trade with African nations has grown to US$40 billionneighbouring Asian and South East Asian countries
and Chinese investment has poured into copperreceive. However, the increases are not shown to be
mines and oil fields, helping to boost Africanproportionate.
economies. As the world's second largest consumerWhile both the level of China's foreign direct
of oil behind the United States, China last yearinvestment and the levels of foreign direct
imported 38.4 million tons of oil from Africa.investments of Asian economies are increasing
The World Bank has pledged US$2.3bn totogether, an increase in China's investment is
sub-Saharan African nations this year yet this pales inassociated with a decline in the shares of foreign
comparison next to the US$8.1bn (according to Worlddirect investment of the Asian economies. The
Bank figures) Beijing has committed in 2006 toself-perpetuating affect of China's continued share of
Nigeria, Angola and Mozambique alone. This placesFDI growth in Asia is not the most important
China in the position of becoming the number onedeterminant governing FDI into Asian countries. Policy
lender to African nations.variables under the control of the nations concerned,
Some in the West have criticised China for pouringsuch as lower corporate taxes and higher degrees of
money into African treasuries while ignoring humanopenness play a larger role in attracting investment.
rights and environmental concerns on the continent.Lower levels of corruption also play a role in leading
China, however, has rejected such criticism, saying itto higher levels of FDI.
abides by a policy of non-intervention and it makes